Title

The information frown in option prices.

SelectedWorks Author Profiles:

Wei Guan

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2005

Date Issued

January 2005

Date Available

April 2013

ISSN

0378-4266

Abstract

In the S&P 500 options market, the information content of implied volatilities differs by strike in a frown pattern that is a rough mirror image of the implied volatility smile. Implied volatilities calculated from moderately high strike price options are both unbiased and efficient predictors of future volatility. Implied volatilities calculated from low and at-the-money strikes are biased and less efficient. This bias cannot be explained by market imperfections but is consistent with the hedging pressure argument of Bollen and Whaley [J. Finan. 59 (2004) 711] and Ederington and Guan [J. Derivat. 10 (2002) (Winter) 9]. We also find that a serious estimation bias results when the relations are estimated using panel data.

Comments

Abstract only. Full-text article is available through licensed access provided by the publisher. Published in Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(6), 1429-1457. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.05.037. Members of the USF System may access the full-text of the article through the authenticated link provided.

Language

en_US

Publisher

Elsevier

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.